HOUSF
Houston Texans @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 6,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Texans win 3,700 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, 49ers +0.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Texans rank 11th (+0.4), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), 49ers 21st (5.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.2 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · SF n/a | HOU 37% · SF 63% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +170 · SF -170 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 26, HOU 21.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 12 and SF by 21.
Side by side
| HOU | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-1 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | SF 15 @ HOU 26 | HOU | HOU -2.5 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | HOU 7 @ SF 23 | SF | SF -14 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | SF 26 @ HOU 16 | SF | HOU -1 |
| 2013-10-06 | 2013 Wk 5 | HOU 3 @ SF 34 | SF | SF -4 |
| 2009-10-25 | 2009 Wk 7 | SF 21 @ HOU 24 | HOU | HOU -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away