SFHOU
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to 49ers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,660 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, 49ers +0.0.
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: 49ers cross 2 time zones for this one.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.2 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · HOU n/a | SF 53% · HOU 47% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -115 · HOU +115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 23, SF 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 17 and HOU by 16.
Side by side
| SF | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | SF 15 @ HOU 26 | HOU | HOU -2.5 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | HOU 7 @ SF 23 | SF | SF -14 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | SF 26 @ HOU 16 | SF | HOU -1 |
| 2013-10-06 | 2013 Wk 5 | HOU 3 @ SF 34 | SF | SF -4 |
| 2009-10-25 | 2009 Wk 7 | SF 21 @ HOU 24 | HOU | HOU -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away