INDLA
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 3.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Colts -8.0.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Upset odds: Colts win 2,530 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Rams 27th (69.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Rams rank 32nd in field goal percentage (60.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -7.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.2 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · LA n/a | IND 25% · LA 75% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +295 · LA -295 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 28, IND 20.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 8 and LA by 25.
Side by side
| IND | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | IND 20 @ LA 27 | LA | LA -3.5 |
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | LA 29 @ IND 23 | LA | LA -1 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | LA 27 @ IND 24 | LA | LA -4 |
| 2017-09-10 | 2017 Wk 1 | IND 9 @ LA 46 | LA | LA -3.5 |
| 2013-11-10 | 2013 Wk 10 | LA 38 @ IND 8 | LA | IND -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away