LAIND
Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 3.8 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Colts -8.0.
- Simulation: Rams win 6,690 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Rams in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,310 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: Rams cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Rams 27th (69.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.2 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · IND n/a | LA 67% · IND 33% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -202 · IND +202 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 23, LA 27.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 21 and IND by 11.
Side by side
| LA | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | IND 20 @ LA 27 | LA | LA -3.5 |
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | LA 29 @ IND 23 | LA | LA -1 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | LA 27 @ IND 24 | LA | LA -4 |
| 2017-09-10 | 2017 Wk 1 | IND 9 @ LA 46 | LA | LA -3.5 |
| 2013-11-10 | 2013 Wk 10 | LA 38 @ IND 8 | LA | IND -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away