INDLAC
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LACLos Angeles Chargers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chargers can win
- Travel: Colts cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Chargers win 5,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Strength: Chargers rank 5th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.12).
- Strength: Chargers rank 7th in defense, EPA per play allowed (-0.05).
Disadvantages Why the Chargers may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 4,830 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Colts in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Colts rank 25th (-3.7), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Chargers 30th (73.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chargers lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.9 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · LAC n/a | IND 48% · LAC 52% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +107 · LAC -107 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 23, IND 23.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 16 and LAC by 17.
Side by side
| IND | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 0-6 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | IND 38 @ LAC 24 | IND | LAC -2.5 |
| 2022-12-26 | 2022 Wk 16 | LAC 20 @ IND 3 | LAC | LAC -3.5 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | IND 24 @ LAC 30 | LAC | LAC -6 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | LAC 22 @ IND 26 | IND | IND -1.5 |
| 2013-10-14 | 2013 Wk 6 | IND 9 @ LAC 19 | LAC | IND -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away