LACIND
Los Angeles Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndianapolis Colts
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Colts can win
- Simulation: Colts win 5,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Chargers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Colts in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Colts rank 25th (-3.7), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
Disadvantages Why the Colts may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,300 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Colts lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Colts rank 32nd in turnover margin per game (-1.3).
- Weak spot: Colts rank 30th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.14).
- Weak spot: Colts rank 27th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.9 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · IND n/a | LAC 43% · IND 57% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +133 · IND -133 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 24, LAC 21.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 14 and IND by 19.
Side by side
| LAC | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 2-5 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | IND 38 @ LAC 24 | IND | LAC -2.5 |
| 2022-12-26 | 2022 Wk 16 | LAC 20 @ IND 3 | LAC | LAC -3.5 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | IND 24 @ LAC 30 | LAC | LAC -6 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | LAC 22 @ IND 26 | IND | IND -1.5 |
| 2013-10-14 | 2013 Wk 6 | IND 9 @ LAC 19 | LAC | IND -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away