INDLV
Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LVLas Vegas Raiders
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Raiders can win
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Travel: Colts cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Raiders win 5,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 15th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Raiders may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 4,900 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 1.5 points stronger.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Colts -8.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Raiders lose by 17 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LV -0.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.8 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · LV n/a | IND 49% · LV 51% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +104 · LV -104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 24, IND 24.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 17 and LV by 17.
Side by side
| IND | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | LV 6 @ IND 40 | IND | IND -7 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2023 Wk 17 | LV 20 @ IND 23 | IND | IND -3.5 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | IND 25 @ LV 20 | IND | LV -4.5 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | LV 23 @ IND 20 | LV | IND -8.5 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | IND 44 @ LV 27 | IND | IND -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away