LVIND
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndianapolis Colts
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Colts can win
- Simulation: Colts win 5,950 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 1.4 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Colts -8.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Travel: Raiders cross 3 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Colts may not
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 4,050 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Colts 21st (7.3%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Colts lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.8 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · IND n/a | LV 40% · IND 60% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +147 · IND -147 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 26, LV 23.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 14 and IND by 20.
Side by side
| LV | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | LV 6 @ IND 40 | IND | IND -7 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2023 Wk 17 | LV 20 @ IND 23 | IND | IND -3.5 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | IND 25 @ LV 20 | IND | LV -4.5 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | LV 23 @ IND 20 | LV | IND -8.5 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | IND 44 @ LV 27 | IND | IND -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away