INDMIN
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Colts -8.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Simulation: Vikings win 7,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,000 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.1 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · MIN n/a | IND 30% · MIN 70% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +233 · MIN -233 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 24, IND 19.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 10 and MIN by 24.
Side by side
| IND | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-0 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | IND 10 @ MIN 16 | MIN | MIN -6.5 |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | IND 13 @ MIN 21 | MIN | MIN -6.5 |
| 2022-12-17 | 2022 Wk 15 | IND 36 @ MIN 39 | MIN | MIN -3.5 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | MIN 11 @ IND 28 | IND | IND -3.5 |
| 2016-12-18 | 2016 Wk 15 | IND 34 @ MIN 6 | IND | MIN -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away