MININD
Minnesota Vikings @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Colts -8.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 1.7 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,850 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.1 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · IND n/a | MIN 62% · IND 38% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -160 · IND +160 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 20, MIN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 20 and IND by 13.
Side by side
| MIN | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | IND 10 @ MIN 16 | MIN | MIN -6.5 |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | IND 13 @ MIN 21 | MIN | MIN -6.5 |
| 2022-12-17 | 2022 Wk 15 | IND 36 @ MIN 39 | MIN | MIN -3.5 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | MIN 11 @ IND 28 | IND | IND -3.5 |
| 2016-12-18 | 2016 Wk 15 | IND 34 @ MIN 6 | IND | MIN -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away