INDNE
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Colts -8.0.
- Simulation: Patriots win 6,820 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 1.4 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,180 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 10 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Patriots 20th (61.1).
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.5 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · NE n/a | IND 32% · NE 68% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +214 · NE -214 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 27, IND 20.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 10 and NE by 23.
Side by side
| IND | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | IND 25 @ NE 24 | IND | IND -2.5 |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | IND 10 @ NE 6 | IND | IND -1 |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Wk 9 | IND 3 @ NE 26 | NE | NE -5 |
| 2021-12-18 | 2021 Wk 15 | NE 17 @ IND 27 | IND | NE -1 |
| 2018-10-04 | 2018 Wk 5 | IND 24 @ NE 38 | NE | NE -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away