NEIND
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Colts -8.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Simulation: Patriots win 5,920 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 1.5 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 4,080 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 14 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Patriots 20th (61.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.5 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · IND n/a | NE 59% · IND 41% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -145 · IND +145 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 23, NE 24.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 19 and IND by 14.
Side by side
| NE | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | IND 25 @ NE 24 | IND | IND -2.5 |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | IND 10 @ NE 6 | IND | IND -1 |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Wk 9 | IND 3 @ NE 26 | NE | NE -5 |
| 2021-12-18 | 2021 Wk 15 | NE 17 @ IND 27 | IND | NE -1 |
| 2018-10-04 | 2018 Wk 5 | IND 24 @ NE 38 | NE | NE -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away