INDNYG
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndianapolis Colts
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Colts can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 2.3 points stronger.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
- Simulation: Colts win 5,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Colts may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 4,850 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Giants -0.3, Colts -8.0.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Giants rank 17th (+0.3), Colts 25th (-3.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYG -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.6 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · NYG n/a | IND 52% · NYG 48% |
| Fair moneyline | IND -106 · NYG +106 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 23, IND 23.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 16 and NYG by 17.
Side by side
| IND | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | IND 33 @ NYG 45 | NYG | IND -7.5 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | IND 10 @ NYG 38 | NYG | NYG -5.5 |
| 2018-12-23 | 2018 Wk 16 | NYG 27 @ IND 28 | IND | IND -10 |
| 2014-11-03 | 2014 Wk 9 | IND 40 @ NYG 24 | IND | IND -3 |
| 2010-09-19 | 2010 Wk 2 | NYG 14 @ IND 38 | IND | IND -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away