NYGIND
New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndianapolis Colts
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Colts can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 2.2 points stronger.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Simulation: Colts win 5,850 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Colts may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 4,150 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Giants -0.3, Colts -8.0.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Point differential per game: Giants rank 17th (+0.3), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Turnover margin per game: Giants rank 20th (-0.3), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -3.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.6 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · IND n/a | NYG 42% · IND 58% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +141 · IND -141 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 24, NYG 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 14 and IND by 20.
Side by side
| NYG | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | IND 33 @ NYG 45 | NYG | IND -7.5 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | IND 10 @ NYG 38 | NYG | NYG -5.5 |
| 2018-12-23 | 2018 Wk 16 | NYG 27 @ IND 28 | IND | IND -10 |
| 2014-11-03 | 2014 Wk 9 | IND 40 @ NYG 24 | IND | IND -3 |
| 2010-09-19 | 2010 Wk 2 | NYG 14 @ IND 38 | IND | IND -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away