INDPIT
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Colts -8.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Simulation: Steelers win 6,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,610 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 26th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.10).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.6 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · PIT n/a | IND 36% · PIT 64% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +177 · PIT -177 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 24, IND 20.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 11 and PIT by 21.
Side by side
| IND | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | IND 22 @ PIT 34 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | IND 20 @ PIT 27 | PIT | IND -3.5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | PIT 24 @ IND 27 | IND | PIT -2.5 |
| 2023-12-16 | 2023 Wk 15 | PIT 13 @ IND 30 | IND | IND -1.5 |
| 2022-11-28 | 2022 Wk 12 | PIT 24 @ IND 17 | PIT | IND -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away