PITIND
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Colts -8.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Steelers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 4,430 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.6 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · IND n/a | PIT 56% · IND 44% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT -126 · IND +126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 21, PIT 23.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 18 and IND by 15.
Side by side
| PIT | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | IND 22 @ PIT 34 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | IND 20 @ PIT 27 | PIT | IND -3.5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | PIT 24 @ IND 27 | IND | PIT -2.5 |
| 2023-12-16 | 2023 Wk 15 | PIT 13 @ IND 30 | IND | IND -1.5 |
| 2022-11-28 | 2022 Wk 12 | PIT 24 @ IND 17 | PIT | IND -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away