INDSEA
Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 3.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Colts -8.0.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Colts win 2,270 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 7 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Seahawks 23rd (66.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -8.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.4 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · SEA n/a | IND 23% · SEA 77% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +340 · SEA -340 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 27, IND 17.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 7 and SEA by 26.
Side by side
| IND | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | IND 16 @ SEA 18 | SEA | SEA -13.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | SEA 28 @ IND 16 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2017-10-01 | 2017 Wk 4 | IND 18 @ SEA 46 | SEA | SEA -12.5 |
| 2013-10-06 | 2013 Wk 5 | SEA 28 @ IND 34 | IND | SEA -3 |
| 2009-10-04 | 2009 Wk 4 | SEA 17 @ IND 34 | IND | IND -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away