SEAIND
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 3.7 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Colts -8.0.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 6,950 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,050 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.4 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · IND n/a | SEA 70% · IND 30% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -228 · IND +228 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 20, SEA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 23 and IND by 10.
Side by side
| SEA | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | IND 16 @ SEA 18 | SEA | SEA -13.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | SEA 28 @ IND 16 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2017-10-01 | 2017 Wk 4 | IND 18 @ SEA 46 | SEA | SEA -12.5 |
| 2013-10-06 | 2013 Wk 5 | SEA 28 @ IND 34 | IND | SEA -3 |
| 2009-10-04 | 2009 Wk 4 | SEA 17 @ IND 34 | IND | IND -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away