INDSF
Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 2.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: 49ers win 7,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Colts win 2,640 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 8 or more.
- History: Colts won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: 49ers rank 30th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -7.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.4 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · SF n/a | IND 26% · SF 74% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +279 · SF -279 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 28, IND 20.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 8 and SF by 25.
Side by side
| IND | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-1 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-22 | 2025 Wk 16 | SF 48 @ IND 27 | SF | SF -4.5 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | IND 30 @ SF 18 | IND | SF -3.5 |
| 2017-10-08 | 2017 Wk 5 | SF 23 @ IND 26 | IND | SF -1 |
| 2013-09-22 | 2013 Wk 3 | IND 27 @ SF 7 | IND | SF -10.5 |
| 2009-11-01 | 2009 Wk 8 | SF 14 @ IND 18 | IND | IND -13 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away