SFIND
San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 2.5 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 6,720 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,280 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: 49ers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.4 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · IND n/a | SF 67% · IND 33% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -205 · IND +205 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 22, SF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 21 and IND by 11.
Side by side
| SF | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-22 | 2025 Wk 16 | SF 48 @ IND 27 | SF | SF -4.5 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | IND 30 @ SF 18 | IND | SF -3.5 |
| 2017-10-08 | 2017 Wk 5 | SF 23 @ IND 26 | IND | SF -1 |
| 2013-09-22 | 2013 Wk 3 | IND 27 @ SF 7 | IND | SF -10.5 |
| 2009-11-01 | 2009 Wk 8 | SF 14 @ IND 18 | IND | IND -13 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away