JAXKC
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
- History: Chiefs won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Strength: Chiefs rank 2nd in running game, EPA per carry (+0.09).
- Strength: Chiefs rank 2nd in points allowed per game (17.2).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Jaguars win 4,770 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 28th in field goal percentage (68.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.2 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · KC n/a | JAX 48% · KC 52% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX +109 · KC -109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 23, JAX 23.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 15 and KC by 17.
Side by side
| JAX | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-06 | 2025 Wk 5 | KC 28 @ JAX 31 | JAX | KC -3.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | KC 17 @ JAX 9 | KC | KC -3.5 |
| 2023-01-21 | 2022 Divisional | JAX 20 @ KC 27 | KC | KC -10 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | JAX 17 @ KC 27 | KC | KC -10 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | KC 40 @ JAX 26 | KC | KC -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away