KCJAX
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Simulation: Jaguars win 5,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Jaguars play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Strength: Jaguars rank 1st in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.16).
- Strength: Jaguars rank 2nd in point differential per game (+8.3).
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Chiefs win 4,300 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 14 or more.
- History: Chiefs won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 0.4 points stronger.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Chiefs rank 3rd (3.5%), Jaguars 12th (5.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.2 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · JAX n/a | KC 43% · JAX 57% |
| Fair moneyline | KC +133 · JAX -133 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 24, KC 21.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 14 and JAX by 19.
Side by side
| KC | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-06 | 2025 Wk 5 | KC 28 @ JAX 31 | JAX | KC -3.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | KC 17 @ JAX 9 | KC | KC -3.5 |
| 2023-01-21 | 2022 Divisional | JAX 20 @ KC 27 | KC | KC -10 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | JAX 17 @ KC 27 | KC | KC -10 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | KC 40 @ JAX 26 | KC | KC -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away