JAXNYJ
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 4.4 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Jets 21st (-1.9).
- Simulation: Jaguars win 7,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,790 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 45 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · NYJ n/a | JAX 72% · NYJ 28% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -258 · NYJ +258 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 20, JAX 24.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 24 and NYJ by 10.
Side by side
| JAX | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | NYJ 20 @ JAX 48 | JAX | JAX -13.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | NYJ 32 @ JAX 25 | NYJ | NYJ -3.5 |
| 2022-12-22 | 2022 Wk 16 | JAX 19 @ NYJ 3 | JAX | NYJ -2.5 |
| 2021-12-26 | 2021 Wk 16 | JAX 21 @ NYJ 26 | NYJ | NYJ -2.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | NYJ 15 @ JAX 29 | JAX | JAX -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away