NYJJAX
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 4.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 7,850 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Jets 21st (-1.9).
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,150 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 24th in pass rush, sacks per dropback (4.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -9.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · JAX n/a | NYJ 22% · JAX 78% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +365 · JAX -365 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 27, NYJ 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 6 and JAX by 27.
Side by side
| NYJ | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | NYJ 20 @ JAX 48 | JAX | JAX -13.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | NYJ 32 @ JAX 25 | NYJ | NYJ -3.5 |
| 2022-12-22 | 2022 Wk 16 | JAX 19 @ NYJ 3 | JAX | NYJ -2.5 |
| 2021-12-26 | 2021 Wk 16 | JAX 21 @ NYJ 26 | NYJ | NYJ -2.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | NYJ 15 @ JAX 29 | JAX | JAX -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away