JAXSEA
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Simulation: Seahawks win 5,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Jaguars cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 0.9 points stronger.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Seahawks rank 8th (7.4%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Upset odds: Jaguars win 4,170 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · SEA n/a | JAX 42% · SEA 58% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX +140 · SEA -140 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 24, JAX 21.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 14 and SEA by 20.
Side by side
| JAX | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | SEA 20 @ JAX 12 | SEA | SEA -1.5 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | JAX 7 @ SEA 31 | SEA | SEA -4 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | SEA 24 @ JAX 30 | JAX | JAX -3 |
| 2013-09-22 | 2013 Wk 3 | JAX 17 @ SEA 45 | SEA | SEA -19.5 |
| 2009-10-11 | 2009 Wk 5 | JAX 0 @ SEA 41 | SEA | SEA -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away