SEAJAX
Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Jaguars play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 5,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Seahawks win 4,950 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.0 points stronger.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Seahawks rank 8th (7.4%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 16 or more.
- History: Seahawks won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -0.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 45 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · JAX n/a | SEA 50% · JAX 50% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA +102 · JAX -102 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 23, SEA 23.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 16 and JAX by 17.
Side by side
| SEA | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | SEA 20 @ JAX 12 | SEA | SEA -1.5 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | JAX 7 @ SEA 31 | SEA | SEA -4 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | SEA 24 @ JAX 30 | JAX | JAX -3 |
| 2013-09-22 | 2013 Wk 3 | JAX 17 @ SEA 45 | SEA | SEA -19.5 |
| 2009-10-11 | 2009 Wk 5 | JAX 0 @ SEA 41 | SEA | SEA -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away