JAXTB
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 3.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 6,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Buccaneers 12th (+1.6).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Jaguars rank 10th (3.8), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Jaguars +1.3.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,780 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Buccaneers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 13 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Buccaneers rank 8th (52.0), Jaguars 25th (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.2 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · TB n/a | JAX 62% · TB 38% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -164 · TB +164 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 21, JAX 24.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 21 and TB by 13.
Side by side
| JAX | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-24 | 2023 Wk 16 | JAX 12 @ TB 30 | TB | JAX -2 |
| 2019-12-01 | 2019 Wk 13 | TB 28 @ JAX 11 | TB | TB -3 |
| 2015-10-11 | 2015 Wk 5 | JAX 31 @ TB 38 | TB | TB -1 |
| 2011-12-11 | 2011 Wk 14 | TB 14 @ JAX 41 | JAX | TB -3 |
| 2007-10-28 | 2007 Wk 8 | JAX 24 @ TB 23 | JAX | TB -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away