TBJAX
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 3.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 6,980 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Buccaneers 12th (+1.6).
- Home field: Jaguars play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Jaguars +1.3.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,020 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 10 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Buccaneers rank 8th (52.0), Jaguars 25th (68.7).
- Field goal percentage: Buccaneers rank 1st (100.0%), Jaguars 16th (83.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -6.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.2 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · JAX n/a | TB 30% · JAX 70% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +231 · JAX -231 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 26, TB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 10 and JAX by 23.
Side by side
| TB | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-24 | 2023 Wk 16 | JAX 12 @ TB 30 | TB | JAX -2 |
| 2019-12-01 | 2019 Wk 13 | TB 28 @ JAX 11 | TB | TB -3 |
| 2015-10-11 | 2015 Wk 5 | JAX 31 @ TB 38 | TB | TB -1 |
| 2011-12-11 | 2011 Wk 14 | TB 14 @ JAX 41 | JAX | TB -3 |
| 2007-10-28 | 2007 Wk 8 | JAX 24 @ TB 23 | JAX | TB -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away