JAXTEN
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
80% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 80% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 6.1 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Simulation: Jaguars win 8,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,970 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 7 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Jaguars 25th (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -9.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.8 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · TEN n/a | JAX 80% · TEN 20% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -409 · TEN +409 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 17, JAX 27.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 27 and TEN by 7.
Side by side
| JAX | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 1-6 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | TEN 7 @ JAX 41 | JAX | JAX -12.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | JAX 25 @ TEN 3 | JAX | JAX -6 |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | TEN 13 @ JAX 20 | JAX | TEN -1 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | JAX 10 @ TEN 6 | JAX | TEN -3 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2023 Wk 18 | JAX 20 @ TEN 28 | TEN | JAX -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away