TENJAX
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
86% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 86% pick loses about 1 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 6.0 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Simulation: Jaguars win 8,630 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,370 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 3 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Jaguars 25th (68.7).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -12.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.8 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · JAX n/a | TEN 14% · JAX 86% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +629 · JAX -629 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 27, TEN 14.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 3 and JAX by 30.
Side by side
| TEN | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 4-2 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | TEN 7 @ JAX 41 | JAX | JAX -12.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | JAX 25 @ TEN 3 | JAX | JAX -6 |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | TEN 13 @ JAX 20 | JAX | TEN -1 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | JAX 10 @ TEN 6 | JAX | TEN -3 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2023 Wk 18 | JAX 20 @ TEN 28 | TEN | JAX -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away