KCLAC
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 2.9 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Chiefs +0.7, Chargers -9.7.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,270 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Chiefs cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Chargers rank 19th (6.0%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · LAC n/a | KC 67% · LAC 33% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -206 · LAC +206 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 20, KC 24.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 21 and LAC by 11.
Side by side
| KC | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 0-6 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | LAC 6 @ KC 22 | KC | KC -7.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | LAC 16 @ KC 13 | LAC | KC -5.5 |
| 2025-09-05 | 2025 Wk 1 | KC 21 @ LAC 27 | LAC | KC -3 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | LAC 17 @ KC 19 | KC | KC -5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | KC 17 @ LAC 10 | KC | KC -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away