LACKC
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 2.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 7,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 2,530 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Chargers rank 19th (6.0%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 28th in field goal percentage (68.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -7.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · KC n/a | LAC 25% · KC 75% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +295 · KC -295 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 26, LAC 17.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 8 and KC by 25.
Side by side
| LAC | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 5-1 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | LAC 6 @ KC 22 | KC | KC -7.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | LAC 16 @ KC 13 | LAC | KC -5.5 |
| 2025-09-05 | 2025 Wk 1 | KC 21 @ LAC 27 | LAC | KC -3 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | LAC 17 @ KC 19 | KC | KC -5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | KC 17 @ LAC 10 | KC | KC -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away