KCLV
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 4.6 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Chiefs +0.7, Raiders -15.0.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
- Simulation: Chiefs win 6,950 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Raiders win 3,050 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: Chiefs cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Raiders rank 15th (6.7%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -5.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.3 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · LV n/a | KC 70% · LV 30% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -228 · LV +228 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 20, KC 27.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 23 and LV by 10.
Side by side
| KC | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | KC 30 @ LV 27 | KC | KC -4.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | KC 12 @ LV 14 | LV | KC -3.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | LV 0 @ KC 31 | KC | KC -13.5 |
| 2024-11-29 | 2024 Wk 13 | LV 17 @ KC 19 | KC | KC -13.5 |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | KC 27 @ LV 20 | KC | KC -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away