LVKC
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 4.5 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Chiefs +0.7, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 7,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,270 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Raiders rank 15th (6.7%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 28th in field goal percentage (68.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -8.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.3 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · KC n/a | LV 23% · KC 77% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +340 · KC -340 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 27, LV 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 7 and KC by 25.
Side by side
| LV | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-1 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | KC 30 @ LV 27 | KC | KC -4.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | KC 12 @ LV 14 | LV | KC -3.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | LV 0 @ KC 31 | KC | KC -13.5 |
| 2024-11-29 | 2024 Wk 13 | LV 17 @ KC 19 | KC | KC -13.5 |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | KC 27 @ LV 20 | KC | KC -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away