KCMIN
Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Vikings rank 1st (10.6%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Chiefs +0.7.
- Home field: Vikings play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Vikings win 5,240 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Vikings in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Chiefs win 4,760 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 1.4 points stronger.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Chiefs rank 3rd (3.5%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Chiefs rank 10th (3.8), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.7 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · MIN n/a | KC 48% · MIN 52% |
| Fair moneyline | KC +110 · MIN -110 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 21, KC 20.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 16 and MIN by 17.
Side by side
| KC | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 6-0 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | KC 27 @ MIN 20 | KC | KC -3.5 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | MIN 23 @ KC 26 | KC | MIN -5.5 |
| 2015-10-18 | 2015 Wk 6 | KC 10 @ MIN 16 | MIN | MIN -3.5 |
| 2011-10-02 | 2011 Wk 4 | MIN 17 @ KC 22 | KC | MIN -3 |
| 2007-09-23 | 2007 Wk 3 | MIN 10 @ KC 13 | KC | KC -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away