MINKC
Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 1.4 points stronger.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Chiefs rank 3rd (3.5%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Chiefs rank 10th (3.8), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Vikings win 4,260 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Vikings rank 1st (10.6%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Chiefs +0.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.7 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · KC n/a | MIN 43% · KC 57% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +135 · KC -135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 23, MIN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 14 and KC by 19.
Side by side
| MIN | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 5-1 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | KC 27 @ MIN 20 | KC | KC -3.5 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | MIN 23 @ KC 26 | KC | MIN -5.5 |
| 2015-10-18 | 2015 Wk 6 | KC 10 @ MIN 16 | MIN | MIN -3.5 |
| 2011-10-02 | 2011 Wk 4 | MIN 17 @ KC 22 | KC | MIN -3 |
| 2007-09-23 | 2007 Wk 3 | MIN 10 @ KC 13 | KC | KC -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away