KCNE
Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 1.7 points stronger.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Chiefs passing game (14th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Patriots win 4,830 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Chiefs +0.7.
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Patriots rank 13th (7.0%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 17 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.1 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · NE n/a | KC 52% · NE 48% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -107 · NE +107 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 23, KC 23.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 17 and NE by 17.
Side by side
| KC | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | 2023 Wk 15 | KC 27 @ NE 17 | KC | KC -10 |
| 2020-10-05 | 2020 Wk 4 | NE 10 @ KC 26 | KC | KC -7 |
| 2019-12-08 | 2019 Wk 14 | KC 23 @ NE 16 | KC | NE -3 |
| 2019-01-20 | 2018 Conf. title | NE 37 @ KC 31 | NE | KC -3 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | KC 40 @ NE 43 | NE | NE -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away