NEKC
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Simulation: Chiefs win 6,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 1.6 points stronger.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Chiefs +0.7.
- Upset odds: Patriots win 3,950 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Patriots rank 13th (7.0%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.1 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · KC n/a | NE 40% · KC 60% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +153 · KC -153 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 24, NE 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 13 and KC by 20.
Side by side
| NE | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-1 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | 2023 Wk 15 | KC 27 @ NE 17 | KC | KC -10 |
| 2020-10-05 | 2020 Wk 4 | NE 10 @ KC 26 | KC | KC -7 |
| 2019-12-08 | 2019 Wk 14 | KC 23 @ NE 16 | KC | NE -3 |
| 2019-01-20 | 2018 Conf. title | NE 37 @ KC 31 | NE | KC -3 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | KC 40 @ NE 43 | NE | NE -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away