KCTEN
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
79% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 6.5 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 7,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Titans 21st (-0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,110 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -8.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.7 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · TEN n/a | KC 79% · TEN 21% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -374 · TEN +374 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 17, KC 25.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 26 and TEN by 7.
Side by side
| KC | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 1-6 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | KC 9 @ TEN 26 | TEN | KC -3.5 |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Wk 9 | TEN 17 @ KC 20 | KC | KC -14 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | KC 3 @ TEN 27 | TEN | KC -4 |
| 2020-01-19 | 2019 Conf. title | TEN 24 @ KC 35 | KC | KC -7.5 |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 10 | KC 32 @ TEN 35 | TEN | KC -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away