TENKC
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
85% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 85% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 6.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 8,500 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Titans 21st (-0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,500 of 10,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 28th in field goal percentage (68.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -11.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.7 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · KC n/a | TEN 15% · KC 85% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +566 · KC -566 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 27, TEN 14.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 4 and KC by 29.
Side by side
| TEN | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 5-1 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | KC 9 @ TEN 26 | TEN | KC -3.5 |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Wk 9 | TEN 17 @ KC 20 | KC | KC -14 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | KC 3 @ TEN 27 | TEN | KC -4 |
| 2020-01-19 | 2019 Conf. title | TEN 24 @ KC 35 | KC | KC -7.5 |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 10 | KC 32 @ TEN 35 | TEN | KC -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away