LANE
Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 2.3 points stronger.
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Simulation: Rams win 5,370 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Rams rank 5th (3.8%), Patriots 14th (5.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Patriots win 4,630 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Rams +3.0.
- Travel: Rams cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Patriots rank 13th (7.0%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.7 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · NE n/a | LA 54% · NE 46% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -116 · NE +116 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 24, LA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 17 and NE by 16.
Side by side
| LA | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | LA 28 @ NE 22 | LA | LA -4 |
| 2020-12-10 | 2020 Wk 14 | NE 3 @ LA 24 | LA | LA -5 |
| 2019-02-03 | 2018 Super Bowl | NE 13 @ LA 3 | NE | NE -2 |
| 2016-12-04 | 2016 Wk 13 | LA 10 @ NE 26 | NE | NE -13 |
| 2012-10-28 | 2012 Wk 8 | NE 45 @ LA 7 | NE | NE -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away