NELA
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 2.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 6,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Travel: Patriots cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Patriots win 3,860 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Rams +3.0.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Patriots rank 13th (7.0%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Patriots rank 6th (3.9), Rams 17th (3.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.7 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · LA n/a | NE 39% · LA 61% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +159 · LA -159 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 26, NE 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 13 and LA by 21.
Side by side
| NE | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | LA 28 @ NE 22 | LA | LA -4 |
| 2020-12-10 | 2020 Wk 14 | NE 3 @ LA 24 | LA | LA -5 |
| 2019-02-03 | 2018 Super Bowl | NE 13 @ LA 3 | NE | NE -2 |
| 2016-12-04 | 2016 Wk 13 | LA 10 @ NE 26 | NE | NE -13 |
| 2012-10-28 | 2012 Wk 8 | NE 45 @ LA 7 | NE | NE -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away