LANO
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 4.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 6,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Rams in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,120 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: Rams cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Rams 27th (69.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 49 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · NO n/a | LA 69% · NO 31% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -220 · NO +220 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 21, LA 27.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 23 and NO by 11.
Side by side
| LA | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | NO 10 @ LA 34 | LA | LA -14 |
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | LA 21 @ NO 14 | LA | LA -2.5 |
| 2023-12-21 | 2023 Wk 16 | NO 22 @ LA 30 | LA | LA -4 |
| 2022-11-20 | 2022 Wk 11 | LA 20 @ NO 27 | NO | NO -2.5 |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 2 | NO 9 @ LA 27 | LA | LA -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away