NOLA
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 4.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Rams in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 2,230 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Rams 27th (69.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Rams rank 32nd in field goal percentage (60.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -8.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 49 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · LA n/a | NO 22% · LA 78% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +348 · LA -348 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 29, NO 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 7 and LA by 27.
Side by side
| NO | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | NO 10 @ LA 34 | LA | LA -14 |
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | LA 21 @ NO 14 | LA | LA -2.5 |
| 2023-12-21 | 2023 Wk 16 | NO 22 @ LA 30 | LA | LA -4 |
| 2022-11-20 | 2022 Wk 11 | LA 20 @ NO 27 | NO | NO -2.5 |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 2 | NO 9 @ LA 27 | LA | LA -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away