LANYJ
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 5.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,250 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Rams in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Jets 21st (-1.9).
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Travel: Rams cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,750 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -6.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.5 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · NYJ n/a | LA 72% · NYJ 28% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -263 · NYJ +263 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 20, LA 27.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 24 and NYJ by 10.
Side by side
| LA | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | LA 19 @ NYJ 9 | LA | LA -3 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | NYJ 23 @ LA 20 | NYJ | LA -17.5 |
| 2016-11-13 | 2016 Wk 10 | LA 9 @ NYJ 6 | LA | LA -1 |
| 2012-11-18 | 2012 Wk 11 | NYJ 27 @ LA 13 | NYJ | LA -3.5 |
| 2008-11-09 | 2008 Wk 10 | LA 3 @ NYJ 47 | NYJ | NYJ -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away