NYJLA
New York Jets @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 5.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Rams in our ratings.
- Travel: Jets cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,190 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Rams rank 32nd in field goal percentage (60.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -9.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.5 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · LA n/a | NYJ 22% · LA 78% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +357 · LA -357 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 27, NYJ 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 6 and LA by 27.
Side by side
| NYJ | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | LA 19 @ NYJ 9 | LA | LA -3 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | NYJ 23 @ LA 20 | NYJ | LA -17.5 |
| 2016-11-13 | 2016 Wk 10 | LA 9 @ NYJ 6 | LA | LA -1 |
| 2012-11-18 | 2012 Wk 11 | NYJ 27 @ LA 13 | NYJ | LA -3.5 |
| 2008-11-09 | 2008 Wk 10 | LA 3 @ NYJ 47 | NYJ | NYJ -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away