LAPHI
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 3.4 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Rams in our ratings.
- Simulation: Rams win 6,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Travel: Rams cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,070 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Eagles rank 21st (-0.4), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -5.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · PHI n/a | LA 69% · PHI 31% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -225 · PHI +225 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 20, LA 25.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 22 and PHI by 11.
Side by side
| LA | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | LA 24 @ PHI 20 | LA | LA -3.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | LA 26 @ PHI 33 | PHI | PHI -3.5 |
| 2025-01-19 | 2024 Divisional | LA 22 @ PHI 28 | PHI | PHI -7 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | PHI 37 @ LA 20 | PHI | PHI -3 |
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | PHI 23 @ LA 14 | PHI | PHI -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away