PHILA
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 3.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,670 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Rams in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 2,330 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Eagles rank 21st (-0.4), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 7 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Eagles rank 1st (100.0%), Rams 32nd (60.0%).
- History: Eagles won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -8.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · LA n/a | PHI 23% · LA 77% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +329 · LA -329 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 27, PHI 17.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 7 and LA by 26.
Side by side
| PHI | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | LA 24 @ PHI 20 | LA | LA -3.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | LA 26 @ PHI 33 | PHI | PHI -3.5 |
| 2025-01-19 | 2024 Divisional | LA 22 @ PHI 28 | PHI | PHI -7 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | PHI 37 @ LA 20 | PHI | PHI -3 |
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | PHI 23 @ LA 14 | PHI | PHI -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away