LASF
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: 49ers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Rams 12th (+1.6).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to 49ers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Upset odds: Rams win 4,600 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 1.3 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: 49ers rank 30th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -1.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.6 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · SF n/a | LA 46% · SF 54% |
| Fair moneyline | LA +117 · SF -117 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 26, LA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 15 and SF by 18.
Side by side
| LA | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-1 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 2026 Wk 1 | SF 27 @ LA 7 | SF | LA -3.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | LA 42 @ SF 26 | LA | LA -5.5 |
| 2025-10-02 | 2025 Wk 5 | SF 26 @ LA 23 | SF | LA -8.5 |
| 2024-12-12 | 2024 Wk 15 | LA 12 @ SF 6 | LA | SF -3 |
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | SF 24 @ LA 27 | LA | SF -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away