SFLA
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Simulation: Rams win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 1.2 points stronger.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Strength: Rams rank 5th in defense, EPA per play allowed (-0.06).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: 49ers win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Rams 12th (+1.6).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: 49ers rank 4th (4.0), Rams 17th (3.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.6 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · LA n/a | SF 46% · LA 54% |
| Fair moneyline | SF +115 · LA -115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 26, SF 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 15 and LA by 18.
Side by side
| SF | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 2026 Wk 1 | SF 27 @ LA 7 | SF | LA -3.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | LA 42 @ SF 26 | LA | LA -5.5 |
| 2025-10-02 | 2025 Wk 5 | SF 26 @ LA 23 | SF | LA -8.5 |
| 2024-12-12 | 2024 Wk 15 | LA 12 @ SF 6 | LA | SF -3 |
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | SF 24 @ LA 27 | LA | SF -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away